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Forum:2011 Southern Hemisphere tropical cyclone season
Welcome Because this is the first basin to have anything this year, here's to a fine start to this forum! Ryan1000 23:15, January 18, 2011 (UTC) South Pacific Tropical Depression 12F Now we're kickin' into some gear again. This little guy is in the South Pacific, having moved out of Australia. Ryan1000 21:03, March 11, 2011 (UTC) :Ah, it's probrably not worth paying attention to, since it's probrably gonna die out soon, or not affect land altogether. Ryan1000 14:26, March 12, 2011 (UTC) Tropical Depression 16F And on the last day of the season, 16F comes onto us. It has an outside chance of becoming Cyril, but it's worth mentioning either way... Ryan1000 16:07, April 30, 2011 (UTC) Australia Tropical Low 18U Yes, yet another one is forming off Australia. This one is following up behind Carlos, but I don't know what the country is in store for from this one(Future Errol). Ryan1000 15:23, February 26, 2011 (UTC) :Ah, no problems, last advisory issued by BoM. It appears Errol will have to wait. Ryan1000 01:07, March 1, 2011 (UTC) Tropical Cyclone 25U Not long ago I said something about the tropics being inactive, and here it is, activity. Currently on the northern coast of Australia, forecast to become a category 1 hurricane and make landfall on the northern coast. Yqt1001 02:28, April 2, 2011 (UTC) :It's technically 25U in Australia's book, but it's currently paralleling northern Australia, and will likely stay out to sea. The precursor wave caused some damage on Meville Island, but as a tropical storm, it will likely remain at sea. If it does make landfall, it will likely hit the northwestern tip of Australia like Carlos. Also, 26U and 27U formed as well. 27U is in the SWIO right now and could become their 2nd storm thus far in 2011, and 26U just formed. Details are scarce on it, but you can see the map of the 2010-11 SHem season in Australia here, if you're curious. 26U isn't mentioned, but 25U is, and if it becomes named, it will be named Errol. Ryan1000 13:45, April 2, 2011 (UTC) ::I only see 25U on that map, and I have yet to hear about 26U or 27U besides from you yet. Yqt1001 15:52, April 2, 2011 (UTC) :26U and 27U are listed somewhere I found, but are likely disturbances for the time being, and forecast to become lows. As of now, Errol may be coming onto us by tomorrow or so, but the SHem has another month to go until it's officially done by April 30. The AUS region was near normal overall, but because of the SWIO, the SHem overall was a below-average season. Then, once the SHem shuts down, the EPac starts up two weeks later, and at the end of May, the North Atlantic starts as well. I also found a CSU link for their second forecast in April on the AHS forum; it may be a better indication of 2011's activity. Ryan1000 18:23, April 2, 2011 (UTC) And 25U is now expected to dissipate in the next few hours. Yqt1001 19:54, April 4, 2011 (UTC) :26U and 27U were dissipating when I last mentioned them... Now we're running out of steam; one more storm or so isn't impossible in the AUS or SPac, but I must admit the Shem is beginning to shut down... Sigh... Farewell; after this the ATL and EPac start up. Ryan1000 21:11, April 4, 2011 (UTC) ::The West Pacific is just starting though! Yqt1001 02:53, April 5, 2011 (UTC) South-West Indian Ocean See the archives on Bingiza and Cherono. Retirements at a Glance So far, what are your retirement predictions for the SHem? Here are mine(including last-year's storms) Australia: *Anggrek - 0% - What did this thing do again? *Tasha - 30% - Australia is generous with retirements, but probrably not with this one. *Vince - 0% - See Anggrek. *Zelia - 10% - Knocked up New Zeland a bit, but they have gone through so much worse. *Anthony - 10% - Washed up Queensland, but was nothing more than a minor predecesor to Yasi. *Bianca - 1% - Well, nothing much came from this one, other than unusuality. *Carlos - 10% - Like Anthony, Darwin has gone through much worse than Carlos. *Dianne - 1% - See Bianca. *Errol - 20% - Indonesia's track record is unknown, but i'm putting a 20% to Errol just to be safe. South Pacific: *Vania - 5% - Soaked up New Caledonia, but that island has gone through so much worse. *Wilma - 5% - It caused some damage on the American Samoa and New Zeland, but it wasn't so bad... *Yasi - 100% - Crushed northern Queensland, billions of dollars in damages, and the costliest cyclone in AUS history; this name just isn't gonna stick around for more. *Zaka - 5% - The final of the trio of New Zeland hits, but, like the other two, nothing much came from Zaka. *Atu - 10% - Impacted the Solomon Islands with winds and rain, but they've seen much worse than Atu. *Bune - 0% - Oooh, Fishie! These are my calls on the SHem retirements; of course, the SWIO never has "retired names", so they're excluded here. Ryan1000 21:32, February 2, 2011 (UTC) I was bored. :) And with the season over, I might as well have a go. *Anggrek - 0% Did nothing. *Abele - 0% Ditto. *Tasha - 50% Well, I'm not sure with this one - it has been called a factor in devastating those floods at Christmastime, however there was also other contributing factors, and it doesn't seem to be a well-known cause... So, I don't know, 50% to be safe. *Vince - 0% And did nothing again. *Zelia - 10% Impacted New Zealand, but wasn't bad. *Anthony - 10% dumped a bit more rain on Queensland, but wasn't bad. *Bianca - 10% A cool and unusual storm, but that isn't criteria for retirement. *Yasi - 100% I was fearing worse from this monster... Not that it wasn't plently bad enough, and no, this name isn't going to be used again. *Dianne - 0% Nothing again. *Carlos - 5% Did a little bit of damage to Darwin... but wasn't that bad. *Errol - 10% It wasn't as bad for Indonesia as it could have been, luckily. *Vania - 5% Gave New Caledonia some rain, that was about it. *Wilma - 10% Hit Samoa and New Zealand, but it wasn't that bad for either. *Zaka - 5% Worried New Zealand again, but wasn't bad. (I need to think of a synonym for this.) *Atu - 10% Hit the Soloman Islands, but it could have been worse. *Bune - 10% Very nice-looking storm, but didn't do much. So there, my thoughts. :) HurricaneFiona 14:14, April 24, 2011 (UTC) :Well, the (2010-2011)season is officially over, or it was two days ago, unless any storms form inside now and June 30. However, the 2010-11 season will be remembered for a long time to come. My favorite storm was probrably Bianca, an unexpected category 4(later downed to strong cat two) unexpectedly exploding over water and not affecting land. Many Australian's would remember Yasi more than anything else, but it wasn't my "favorite" storm this year because, well, it's hard to cope with the losses after the storm. If anyone wants to know just how big Yasi really was in comparison to other places around the world, view this link. If you take Yasi into Tip territory, she only measures up to about one-third his size, but if you take Yasi over Katrina or Rick territory, she's a downright massive monster. It's pretty clear to see she'll be retired, and everyone else in the season is a toss-up or probrably not. Now that this year is done, the EPac and Atlantic have another 2 weeks and month, respectively, until they start up. Until then, farewell to the SHem.(I should have technically named this forum 2010-11 SHem tropical cyclone season, but oh well...) Ryan1000 13:28, May 2, 2011 (UTC) Replacement names Since this forum has lost all of its activity I would like to know if anyone has suggestions for replacement names? I have some here: *Female Y names (Yasi) - Yvette, Yolanda *Female T names (Tasha) - Tatiana, Tabby, Tabitha, Tammy, Tania, Tara, Teresa I can't see any other names being retired, but, well this forum has pretty much been abandoned, to be honest... Ryan1000 15:57, May 28, 2011 (UTC) Here are my replacemrnt names (but I don't know if anyone will see them)... Y names (Yasi): Yasmine T names (Tasha): Tanya, Tillie, Tori, Trina, Trudy, Tina A names (Anthony): Andrew, Andres, Al, Albert, Aaron, Adam, Abe, Alberto, Alvin Andrew444 15:26, June 16, 2011 (UTC) :Wel, no one really cares about anywhere other than the north Atlantic or East Pacific forums, but I would only look forward to Yasi being retired here, possibly Tasha, and everyone else is 50/50 or no. Anyhow, this forum is the only one that got a descent bit of attention this year as of now, excluding the EPac thus far, and every year before 2011 had no attention here whatsoever. Some, like 2009, never even had it made. Ryan1000 17:54, June 16, 2011 (UTC) ::Personally I don't really care about replacement names, they confuse me (I think..I'm not too sure). Yqt1001 19:20, June 16, 2011 (UTC) :Well, we never may know what Australia may do with storms that hit them... For god's f**king sake, they retire almost every single storm that hits them. They get hit all the time by tropical cyclones, but retired names should be limited by their standards like they are for Mexico, ect. Then again, only 20 or so million people live in Australia. Proportionally, by population, Yasi's 3.5 billion in damage would be a whopping 52.5 billion in the U.S! That would put it on Par with Andrew as the second costliest storm in U.S. history. Even so, Australia's building codes are really high and can easily withstand storms, so to put it bluntly, Yasi was Australia's Katrina. It's rather tough to think of "Y" names... Yvette is a possibility, even though it already is in use on Australia's lists(but Yasi is on the SPac lists), and Yolanda could also be chosen, even though Yolande is also already on the SPac. Tasha did do a lot of flood damage, but I won't count on it being a shoe-in like Yasi. If you see the NHC's naming lists, they say the South Pacific has 4 naming lists, A,B,C, and D, with another list(E) for replacement names from retired storms if need be. Yalo is the "Y" name I see there. I'm not sure if they might just inmediately replace Yasi with that, but it depends on what names Australia submits IMO. Ryan1000 02:19, June 17, 2011 (UTC) 2011-12 season The 2011-12 season has officially begun. Ryan1000 02:35, July 1, 2011 (UTC)